环境与可持续发展规划的途径及其有效性

　　4 讨论

　　作为总结，可以作以下几点讨论：

　　(1) 无论是以经济最优或是以生态最适为目标的可持续规划都是非常困难的，甚至是不可能的。也就是说规划不可能是绝对的、唯一的，既非经济决定论的，也非环境决定论的。规划是多样化的、可替代的和可选择的，即规划应是可辩护的。

　　(2) 环境会对发展强加某种“最终”的或是“绝对”的限制，对此规划必须遵循。但是，这种限制或边界是很难定义的，或是难以接受的，它在规划中缺乏实际的可操作性。

　　(3) 在规划所依赖的许多经典概念和模式受到怀疑和摒弃之后，规划方法论也面临着严峻的挑战。这就需要探讨和发展面向 21 世纪的可持续环境与发展规划的新概念和模式，使可持续规划更为有效。安全格局途径正是在这一方面的一个尝试，它是否具有生命力还有赖于广泛的实践检验。

参考文献
1 YU Kong-jian. Security Patterns in Landscape Planning: With a Case in South China.Doctoral Thesis, Har- vard University, 1995
2 Von Newmann J, Morgenstern O. Theory of Games and Economic Behavior. Princeton: Princeton Univer- sity, 1947
3 Luce R D，Raiffa H. Games and Decisions: Introduction and Critical Survey. NewYork: John Willey & Sons Inc, 1957
4 Foy G. Economic sustainability and the preservation of environmental assets. Environmental Management, 1990,14(6):771-778
5 Pearce D W. The great environmental values debate. Environment Planning, 1994,26:1329-1338
6 McHarg I. Design With Nature(l992 edition). New York: John Wiley & Sons Inc, 1969
7 McHarg I. Human ecological planning at Pennsylvania. Landscape Planning, 1981(8):109-120
8 Litton R B Jr, Kieiger M. (A Review on) Design with nature. Journal of the American Institute of Planners, 1971,37(1):50-52
9 Faludi A. A Decision-centered View of Environmental Planning. Pergamon Press, 1987
10 Alexander E R. Approaches to Planning: Introducing Current Planning Theories, Concepts and Issues. Gordon and Breach Science Publishers, 1986
11 Davidoff P. Advocacy and pluralism in planning. Journal of the American Institute of Planners, 1965,31:331-338
12 Simon H A. Models of Man, Social and Rational. New York: Wiley, 1957
13 Pearce D W. An incompatibility in planning for a steady state and planning for maximum economic welfare. Environment and Planning, 1973,5:267-271
14 Ciriacy-Wantrup S V. Resource Conservation: Economics and Policies. Berkeley, 1968
15 Bishop R C. Endangered species and uncertainty: the economics of a safe minimum standard. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1978,60:10-18
16 Perrings C. Reserved rationality and the precautionary principle: Technological change, time and uncertain- ty in environmental decision making. Ecological Economics: The Science and Management of Sustainability. New York: Columbia University Press, 1991.154-166
17 United Nations Threshold Analysis Handbook. New York: Department of Economic and Social Affairs, UN, 1977
18 Kozlowski J. Threshold Approach in Urban, Regional and Environmental Planning: Theory and Practice. St. Lucia, (Queenland，Australia): University of Queenland Press, 1986
19 Kozlowski J, Hill G. Towards Planning for Sustainable Development: A Guide for the Ultimate Environmen- tal Threshold (UET) Method. Vermont (USA): Avebery, Asggate Publishing Company, 1993
20 dum E P. Fundamentals of Ecology. Saunders: Philadelphia, PA, 1971
21 IUCN/UNEP/WWF. Caring for the Earth — A Strategy for Sustainable Living. Switzerland: Gland, 1991
22 Bishop A B, Fullerton H H et al. Carrying Capacity in Regional Environmental Management. Washington D. C: Office of Research and Development, U.S Environmental Protection Agency, 1974
23 Held R B, Brickler S et al. A Study to Develop Criteria for Determining. The Carrying Capacity of Areas Within the National Park System. Department of Recreation and Watershed Resources, Colorado State University, 1969
24 Kuss F R, Morgan J M. Estimating the physical carrying capacity of recreation areas: A case study for the application of universal soil loss equation. Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, 1980,35(2):87-89
25 Otolano L. Environmental Planning and Decision Making. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1984